karl_lembke (karl_lembke) wrote,

Economists on global warming

This piece discusses the results of a quick survey of Ph.D. level economists, randomly selected from the ranks of the American Economic Association. The survey asked one question:

"In comparison to a world in which greenhouse gas (GHG) levels were stable, rising levels of greenhouse gases by the end of the twenty-first century will cause GDP per capita in the U.S. to be a) more than 10 percent lower, b) about 5 to 10 percent lower, c) about 1 to 5 percent lower, d) less than 1 percent lower or higher, e) about 1 to 5 percent higher, or f) more than 5 percent higher."

Change in per-capita US GDP due to global warming
12.5%a) more than 10 percent lower
7.1%b) about 5 to 10 percent lower
21.4%c) about 1 to 5 percent lower
35.7%d) less than 1 percent lower or higher
16.1%e) about 1 t o5 percent higher
7.1%f) more than 5 percent higher

The average value is around a 2% decrease, so the effect of global warming, according to these economists, is enough to cancel out one year of economic growth in this country.

This means that if our economy is 7 trillion dollars, it might be worth as much as $1.4 billion per year to offset this change.
Tags: politics, science

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